Ambassador Sharat Sabharwal Adviser, Ananta Centre  Former High Commissioner of India to PakistanDECEMBER 2018 | VOL 02 ISSUE 09 | MONTHLY Ambassador Sharat Sabharwal has joined the Ananta Centre as Advisor, Pakistan and Afghanistan and will be contributing to the monthly Af-Pak Digest. Ambassador Sabharwal has had a distinguished career as a diplomat notably as High Commissioner of India to Pakistan, Ambassador of India to Uzbekistan and Deputy Permanent Representative of India to the UN in Geneva. H I G H L I G H T S • Overview • Developments in Pakistan • Developments in Afghanistan  I Overview Pakistan:  • The blasphemy issue rocks Pakistan again • Pakistan struggles with yet another balance of payments crisis • PM Imran Khan visits China • War of words between President Trump and PM Imran Khan • Opening of the Kartarpur Corridor Afghanistan:  • Peace and reconciliation efforts continue • Geneva Conference on Afghanistan held on 27th and 28th November • Violence continues to rock Afghanistan • President Ashraf Ghani to seek re-election • US exempts the Chabahar port from sanctions   ......................................................................................................................... II Developments in Pakistan Blasphemy protests Widespread protests, spearheaded by the radical Sunni-Barelvi party Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), broke out following the Supreme Court decision on October 31 to acquit Asia Bibi, a Christian woman, of the charge of blasphemy and overturn the death sentence awarded to her by the lower courts. She had been incarcerated since 2009 on the blasphemy charge. TLP called for mutiny against the army leadership and assassination of the judges. PM Imran Khan issued a stern warning to the protestors in an address to the nation. He said that Pakistan was founded in the name of Islam and the verdict given by the Supreme Court was in accordance with the Constitution and the teachings of the holy Quran and Sunnah. He regretted the language used by the protesting radical groups against the judges and their call for rebellion in the armed forces. He called upon the people not to be provoked by the agitators and warned that if the protests continued, the state would fulfil its duty to protect the people and their property. The Prime Minister came in for praise from liberal commentators for the tough stand taken by him against the religious extremists. However, within two days, the government seemed to capitulate in the face of the continuing protests and reached a deal with TLP to make them call off their agitation. It agreed to initiate the legal process to place Asia Bibi’s name on the exit control list to prevent her from leaving the country, not to oppose a review petition filed in the Supreme Court against its decision and release all those arrested in the course of the protests. Uncertainty continued to surround Asia Bibi’s whereabouts, with some media reports, denied by the government, indicating that she had been quietly sent out of Pakistan. Later in the month, the government arrested several TLP activists, including its head, Khadim Hussain Rizvi and charged them with treason and terrorism. It would be recalled that Tehreek-e-Labbaik had shot to fame in October 2017 when it organized protests spanning three weeks against an amendment to the election law. It participated in the July 2018 election, garnering a noticeable number of votes. Subsequently, it was the lead player in forcing PM Imran Khan to drop the Princeton economist Atif Mian from his Economic Advisory Council on account of his belonging to the Ahmediyya sect. Therefore, government’s handling of this influential radical party will be worth watching.  Balance of Payments crisis Since the advent of the Imran Khan government, there had been reports of Pakistan seeking a bailout, its thirteenth, from the IMF to tide over its serious balance of payments crisis (its foreign exchange reserves fell to a five year low of a little over 8 billion dollars at the end of September, representing import bill of less than two months). In August, the US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, in a reference to the mounting Chinese debt to Pakistan as a result of the CPEC, had said that Pakistan would not be allowed to use the IMF cash to pay its Chinese debts. Even as Pakistan pursued the IMF track, it also took steps to secure assistance from friendly countries. During Imran Khan’s visit to Saudi Arabia in end October, the Saudis reportedly agreed to provide $3 billion in foreign currency support for a year and a one year deferred payment facility up to $3 billion for import of oil. Later in November, Imran paid his second visit to the UAE (the first was in September), Pakistan’s major oil supplier, and was reported to have asked for financial assistance and deferred payment facility for oil supplies. In the run up to the Prime Minister’s visit to China in the beginning of November, there were expectations of financial assistance from China too. Following Imran’s meeting with the Chinese Premier, Vice Foreign Minister Kong Xuanyou said that while there was agreement in principle on China providing necessary support and assistance to Pakistan in tiding over its current difficulties, the specifics would be discussed in detail by the competent authorities of the two countries. Subsequently, the Chinese Consul General in Lahore said in a TV interview that instead of hard cash, China was planning to provide assistance in the form of investment in fresh projects. Simultaneously, Pakistan also started discussions with an IMF team in Islamabad for a bailout package, reportedly in the range of $6 to 8 billion. However, media reports indicated persisting differences between the two sides on the tough conditionalities demanded by the IMF, notably concerning increase in energy prices, enhanced taxes and complete disclosure of impact of the Chinese assistance. At the end of November, Finance Minister Asad Umar said that tough Pakistan wanted to obtain a bailout package from the IMF to ease and open up other funding avenues, it was not in a hurry to do so.  Imran Khan’s visit to China Imran Khan paid a visit to China, his first as Prime Minister, from November 2 to 5 and met President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Li Keqiang among others. The visit came in the backdrop of reports concerning the desire of the PTI government to review the CPEC projects and Pakistan’s search for financial assistance from friendly countries to tide over its balance of payments crisis. In September, Prime Minister’s Advisor on Commerce, Textile, Industry and Production, Abdul Razak Dawood had been quoted as saying that the previous government had done a bad job in negotiating the CPEC projects and hinting at a review (he later said that he had been quoted out of context). In a lengthy joint statement, the two sides agreed that BRI represents a win-win model of international cooperation and “the fast development of CPEC has played a significant role in the Belt and Road cooperation.” They reviewed the “early harvest phase” of CPEC and expressed satisfaction that rapid progress had been made in all areas especially the energy sector. They reaffirmed their complete consensus on the future trajectory of the CPEC, timely completion of its ongoing projects and joint efforts for realization of its full potential “with focus on socio-economic development, job creation and livelihoods and accelerating cooperation in industrial development, industrial parks and agriculture.” Recognizing the significance of Gwadar as an important node in cross-regional connectivity and “the central pillar of CPEC”, they agreed to speed up progress on it and its auxiliary projects. They dismissed the growing negative propaganda against CPEC and expressed their determination to safeguard it from all threats. In a separate statement, the Chinese Vice Foreign Minister, Kong Xuanyou, said that there was no plan to scale back the CPEC, though it would be altered somewhat to “tilt in favour of areas relating to people’s lives.” While agreeing to take concrete measures to address trade imbalance (against Pakistan), the two sides decided to conclude the second phase of their Free Trade Agreement as early as possible. (The second phase of the Free Trade Agreement was due to begin in January 2014, but has been hanging fire on account of persisting differences between the two sides). The Chinese side conveyed its support to “Pakistan’s commitment and efforts to counter terrorism” and “assured Pakistan of its support in implementing its counter-terrorism strategy.” It also recognized Pakistan’s efforts in actively strengthening financial regulations to combat terrorism financing “and called on all relevant parties to view Pakistan’s counter-terrorism efforts in an objective and fair manner.” Both sides expressed their belief that “ a peaceful, stable, cooperative and prosperous South Asia is in the common interest of all parties” and emphasized “the importance of pursuit of dialogue and resolution of all outstanding disputes to promote regional cooperation and advance the goals of lasting peace, stability and shared prosperity.” China expressed its support to “Pakistan’s efforts for improvement of Pakistan-India relations and for settlement of outstanding disputes between the two countries.” Pakistan supported active participation of China in SAARC. On Afghanistan, they supported ‘Afghan-owned and Afghan-led’ peace and reconciliation process, emphasized trilateral China-Afghanistan-Pakistan consultations at the Foreign Ministers level to deepen trilateral cooperation and decided to hold the second tripartite foreign ministers talks within this year.  On November 23, the Chinese Consulate in Karachi came under a terror attack resulting in the killing of two policemen, two civilians, besides the three terrorists. There was no casualty amongst the Chinese personnel. Baluchistan Liberation Army claimed the responsibility for the attack.  China asked Pakistan to beef up security of the Consulate. A Foreign Ministry spokesman said that China would not waver in its commitment to the CPEC project and expressed confidence that Pakistan could ensure the security of the Chinese citizens. India condemned the attack saying that there can be no justification for any act of terrorism. Another terror attack the same day killed over 30 persons and injured around 50 in the Orakzai district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.  War of words between President Trump and Prime Minister Imran Khan In a sign of continued discord between the two countries, a war of words broke out between President Trump and Prime Minister Imran Khan. Responding to the query of a Fox News anchor on November 18 whether it would have been nice if the US had got Osama bin Laden a lot sooner than it did,  President Trump said that he was living right next to the military academy (Pakistan Military Academy, Kakul) and “everyone in Pakistan knew he was there.” He added that Pakistan was being given $1.3 billion a year, which he had stopped “because they don’t do anything for us, they don’t do a damn thing for us.” In a subsequent tweet, he reiterated that Pakistan was being paid billions of dollars, but “they never told us he (Osama) was living there” and the payment had been stopped because Pakistan did nothing in return. Besides the Osama case, Trump cited Afghanistan as another example of Pakistan doing nothing for the US. Shortly thereafter, PM Imran Khan tweeted that Trump’s “false assertions” added insult to injury because Pakistan had suffered in the US War on Terror in terms of loss of life, destabilization and economic costs. He added that Pakistan’s losses were far greater than the US assistance and it would now do what was best for its people and interests.  He pointed out that Pakistan continued to provide free lines of ground and air communications to Afghanistan for the US forces and called upon the US to do a serious assessment of why in spite of thousands of NATO and Afghan troops and $1 trillion reportedly spent on the war in Afghanistan, the Taliban were stronger than before. COAS, Qamar Javed Bajwa also asserted a day later that Pakistan had done much more for peace in Afghanistan than any other country. The Foreign Office summoned the US Charge d’affaires to lodge a protest against Trump’s remarks and claimed that Pakistan’s intelligence had provided the ‘initial evidence’ that led to the tracing of Osama bin Laden. It would be recalled that in an opinion piece published on May 2, 2011 in the Washington Post, the then President Zardari had also claimed that a decade of cooperation between the US and Pakistan had resulted in Osama’s elimination and Pakistan’s early assistance in identifying an Al-Qaeda courier had led the Americans to Osama. Earlier in the month, taking note of the ordinance banning JuD and Falah-i-Insaniyat Foundation having lapsed, the US had called upon Pakistan to urgently enact legislation to formally proscribe the above organizations.  Kartarpur Corridor India and Pakistan decided to open a corridor for travel by Indian pilgrims to Gurudwara Kartarpur Sahib, the final resting place of the founder of Sikhism, Guru Nanak Dev, located in Pakistan barely three kilometres from the border in Punjab. It was an old Indian proposal that had not been agreed to earlier by Pakistan. Following adoption of a resolution by the Indian Cabinet on November 22 to commemorate the 550th birth anniversary of Guru Nanak, India urged the Pakistan government to build a corridor with suitable facilities in their territory to facilitate visit of pilgrims from India to Kartarpur Sahib throughout the year. Government of India also decided to build the corridor to the border in the Indian territory. Pakistan reacted positively to the proposal the same day. The Vice President of India laid the foundation of the corridor on the Indian side on November 26. PM Imran Khan did the same on the Pakistani side on November 28 in the presence of General Bajwa. The External Affairs Minister of India, who was invited for the ceremony by her Pakistani counterpart, regretted the invitation citing prior commitments. However, India was represented by Minister Harsimrat Kaur Badal and Minister of State Hardeep Singh Puri. Speaking on the occasion, Imran Khan said that Pakistan wished to move forward and build a civilized relationship with India, but had just one problem- Kashmir, which could be resolved with determination. On November 24, recalling the fall of Berlin Wall, Prime Minister Modi had said that Kartarpur corridor might become a reason to bring people together. However, the hope of the corridor serving as a step to a bigger breakthrough was short lived. On November 28, External Affairs Minister, Sushma Swaraj said that the Kartarpur corridor and dialogue between India and Pakistan were different things. Unless and until Pakistan stopped terrorism activities against India, there would be no dialogue and India would not participate in the SAARC summit in Pakistan.

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III Developments in Afghanistan Peace and reconciliation moves Russia hosted a meeting on Afghanistan in Moscow on November 9 to which it had invited representatives of the Taliban, Afghanistan, US, India, Iran, China, Pakistan and the five Central Asian Republics. Initially scheduled to be held in September, the meeting was postponed because of Kabul’s insistence on an Afghan-led peace process. Afghanistan was represented by members of the High Peace Council and the US by a diplomat from its Embassy in Moscow. India sent two senior retired diplomats to the meeting calling its participation as “non-official”, while emphasizing that peace efforts should be Afghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled. Speaking at the meeting, Foreign Minister Lavrov said that Russia stood for preserving undivided Afghanistan, in which all ethnic groups could live side by side. He added that Russia saw its role, together with Afghanistan’s regional partners and friends, who had gathered around the table, to assist in facilitating the start of a constructive intra-Afghan dialogue. In a communique, the Russian Foreign Ministry said that the participants “agreed to continue consultations within the framework of this mechanism.” Media reports quoted the Taliban and the representatives of the Afghan High Peace Council as saying that the meeting ended without an agreement on a path to direct dialogue between them. Sher Mohammed Stanikzai, the Taliban spokesperson said that they did not recognize the current Kabul government as legal and would not hold talks with it. He added that in view of their main demand of withdrawal of foreign forces, they would discuss a peaceful resolution with the Americans. The HPC representatives said that Kabul was ready for direct talks with the Taliban. The Taliban were reported to have held three days of talks with the US envoy, Zalmay Khalilzad in Qatar during the month. Media reports indicated that the Taliban were represented by Khairullah Khairkhwa, the former Governor of Herat and Mohammed Fazl, a former military chief. They pressed for postponement of next year’s presidential election and constitution of an interim government under a neutral leadership. They rejected a proposal for ceasefire made by Khalilzad. There was no agreement on release of prisoners, opening the Taliban office or lifting a Taliban travel ban. Speaking in Kabul on November 18, Khalilzad expressed the hope that the Taliban and the Afghan government would strike peace deal before the presidential election. He added, “The Taliban are saying that they don’t believe that they can succeed militarily….I think there is an opportunity for reconciliation and peace.” The Taliban, however, said that there was no agreement on any deadline for a peace deal. Speaking of the US peace efforts, Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah struck a cautious note, saying that the Taliban had not shown the intention to get seriously engaged in the peace negotiations. This was in contrast to President Ghani’s statement earlier in the month that it was not if but when an agreement would be reached with the Taliban. Abdullah Abdullah underlined the need to hold the Presidential election in time regardless of the result of peace efforts.  Geneva Conference Government of Afghanistan and the UN held a conference on Afghanistan in Geneva on November 27 and 28. According to a communique of UNAMA, its goal was to show the solidarity of the international community with the Afghan people in their efforts for peace and prosperity; and for the Afghan government to renew its commitment to development and reform. It took place between two pledging conferences, the Brussels conference of 2016 and the next one expected to be held in 2020. Speaking at the Conferences, President Ghani said that his government wanted a peace agreement in which the Afghan Taliban would be included “in a democratic and inclusive society”. He added that any deal must fulfil certain conditions, including respecting the constitutional rights of women. He underlined that the Presidential election in the spring was key to successful peace negotiations. The Afghan people needed an elected government to obtain ratification and implement the peace agreement. Implementation, he said, would take a minimum of five years to reintegrate six million refugees and internally displaced people. He announced the formation of a twelve member team to negotiate peace with the Taliban. The US representative urged the Taliban to commit to a ceasefire and appoint their own negotiating team and called for the Presidential election to be managed better than the parliamentary election. Russia expressed its concern at the worsening military and political situation and called for a broad intra-Afghan dialogue. In a communique issued at its conclusion, the conference reaffirmed its commitment to “an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned peace process, as articulated at the Kabul Process for Peace and Security Cooperation in February 2018 as a main forum and vehicle and endorsed at the Tashkent conference.” Further to the conference in Brussels in 2016, the international community reaffirmed its intention to provide $15.2 billion for Afghanistan’s development priorities up to 2020 and direct “continuing but gradually declining” financial support to Afghanistan’s social and economic development throughout the Transformation Decade, as the government continues to deliver on its commitments under the mutual accountability framework.   Violent incidents continue Afghanistan continued to be rocked by incidents of terror and violence. A Taliban attack on a Ghazni checkpoint in the beginning of the month killed at least 13 soldiers and policemen. Similar attacks in Khawaja Ghar district and Kunduz killed 14 and 7 soldiers respectively. Later in the month, dozens of people were killed in a powerful suicide bomb blast targeted at a large gathering of religious figures in Kabul. A number of soldiers were killed and wounded in a separate terror attack on a mosque inside an army base in the Khost province. The month ended with ten dead in a terror attack on a security compound in Kabul. In its quarterly report presented to the US Congress at the beginning of November, the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) stated that the Afghan government’s control and influence of districts was at its lowest level (55.5%) since SIGAR started tracking the situation in 2015. The report further stated that the Afghan forces “made minimal or no progress in pressuring the Taliban over the quarter” and “failed to gain greater control or influence over districts, population and territory this quarter.” It noted that the insurgent control of districts had also decreased and contested districts under neither the government nor insurgent control had increased. Casualties among the Afghan forces during the quarter were described as “the greatest it has ever been during like periods.” Elections The office of President Ashraf Ghani announced at the beginning of the month that he would be seeking re-election as President next year. A report in the Wall Street Journal in mid-November claimed that the US was considering pushing for postponement of next year’s Presidential election in a move that could be linked to Khalilzad’s apparent six month deadline to broker peace with the Taliban. Reacting to the report, leaders of Hizb-e-Islami, Jamiat-e-Islami Party of Afghanistan and the National Islamic Movement of Afghanistan opposed any delay in conducting the election. Rejecting the above report, a spokesman of President Ghani said that the government was committed to holding the Presidential election as per the Afghan constitution and the date determined by the Independent Election Commission. He added, “Continuity in a democratic process is a must and any other proposal than the will of the Afghans which is outlined in our constitution is simply not acceptable.” By the end of November, the Independent Election Commission (IEC) had announced the results of the parliamentary elections held the previous month only in respect of 13 provinces with the least number of seats. Results of bigger provinces, including Kabul, were yet to be announced. A spokesman of the IEC said, “We are currently working to finalize the process of recounting and assessing the votes cast in other provinces”, but did not give a date for announcement of complete results.  Chabahar Port exempted from sanctions A State Department spokesman announced that it had been decided to exempt the port project in Chabahar being build with Indian investment from sanctions against Iran in recognition of its importance to landlocked Afghanistan. President Donald Trump’s “South Asian strategy underscores our ongoing support of Afghanistan’s economic growth and development as well as our close partnership with India,” the spokesman said on November 6. The exemption would cover development of the Chabahar port along with an attached railway project and Iranian petroleum shipments to Afghanistan. The spokesman further stated, “This exception relates to reconstruction assistance and economic development for Afghanistan. These activities are vital for the ongoing support of Afghanistan’s growth and humanitarian relief.”

19th December 2018